Braves
The 2021 World Series is the most recent title in the whole portfolio, which makes Atlanta the control group. When a roster here is measured and found short, this is the team that shows what the standard looks like when it is met.
Atlanta scores three for Chris Sale and wins. It scores two and does not.
Atlanta is 2-9 in Chris Sale starts when it scores two runs or fewer and 12-1 when it scores three or more. He starts against Philadelphia on Friday. On August 21 this site published that split as 1-9 and it has since moved by one game.
Philadelphia has seven games left against Atlanta. It needs six of them.
Atlanta leads the National League East by four with 22 to play, and seven of Philadelphia's 22 are against Atlanta. That is the largest share of any chasing club in baseball. Split everything else and Philadelphia still has to win six of the seven.
The Braves are 1-9 when Chris Sale gets two runs or fewer
Friday's 2-1 loss made it 10 of 23 Chris Sale starts with two runs or fewer of support, and the Braves are 1-9 in those games despite a 5.0 run season average.
Three Nights in Minneapolis and the Braves Never Led Once
Minnesota swept the series 6-4, 4-1, 4-2 and outscored Atlanta 14-7 without the Braves ever holding a lead, play by play, across all three games.
The Braves Lost to a Team They Outscore by 161 Runs
Atlanta lost 4-2 in Minneapolis despite a +115 run differential that ranks third in baseball, a 161 run gap over a Twins team sitting at -46.
The Braves' closer problem is hiding inside a healthy season line
Raisel Iglesias has a 3.02 ERA and 24 saves this season, but since July 6 his ERA is 5.87 and all three of his blown saves live there, hidden behind a 1.53 ERA before it.
The Braves go quiet more often when Chris Sale pitches
The Braves score two runs or fewer in 25 percent of games this season, but that rate jumps to 41 percent in Chris Sale's 22 starts, even though his own run support average sits above the team's.
Braves fans are arguing about the wrong stat.
Dylan Lee leads MLB in holds with zero saves. A teardown of what the save column actually measures, built from all 387 Braves relief appearances.
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